As we move into the second half of the season, the Betting Trend sample size becomes even more useful. At the same time, oddsmakers have a better sense of the team.
The Underdogs have been on a winning streak for nine weeks, winning 58.3% of their games over the spread. That’s not why the underdog jumped at me in this week’s slate, but staying above 60% for the spread (and staying green across the board) requires the trend to continue.
This weekend’s internationals give you an extra solo window to take part in and analyze two prime-time matches, the best Sunday afternoon matchups, and moneyline underdogs.
Last week’s record: 3-2-1 overall. 2-1-1 versus spread. 1-0 on the Moneyline upset pick. 0-1 on player props.
Season record: 27-25-2 overall. 21-13-2 vs Spread. 2-7 on the Moneyline upset pick. 4-5 on player props.
The Seahawks have been eliminated seven times this season, winning five outright. I am certainly behind them. The time has passed to take them seriously. We’re still waiting for the Bucks to flip the switch, perhaps with last week’s comeback victory over the Rams. The Seahawks are playing against a team where he ranks 5th in DVOA (defensively adjusted averages) and in a neutral environment he ranks 10th in DVOA (perhaps Tom I suspect there are a lot of Brady fans out there.) I feel safer going with the underdogs who have better records and favorable data behind them.
Sunday Afternoon Premier Game: Vikings +3 at Bills
Josh Allen’s injury makes it a difficult game to predict, even with uncertainty baked into the spread. , not to mention the fact that the building is secondary and understaffed. Minnesota has been favored in all but one game this season, and since they lost and failed to cover that one, there’s not much to rely on for the Vikings to be underdogs. They ranked him 18th in his DVOA, suggesting that their record is inflated. They may still be susceptible to Case Keenum. It’s not enough to go against them in this place.
Moneyline upset: Steelers +105 vs. Saints
Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers finished their bye week with an 11-4 record. It’s hard to compare this version of the Steelers to past teams, but his two-week preparation against the Saints and TJ Watt’s expected return make a good combination. The last time Watt played, he had a sack and an interception in an upset against Cincinnati. Add in the fact that the Saints are taking a short break after Monday’s physical game, and he’s lost three in his last four games, and it’s a favorable recipe for upsets. Of course, that would require the Steelers to score, and they only average 15 points per game.
Sunday’s primetime game: Chargers +7 at 49ers
The 49ers are healthier after their bye week and should emerge as legitimate Super Bowl contenders later in the season. take. Herbert was a four-time, seven-point underdog as a starter, and the Chargers covered all four of his games. My concern is that Herbert is still playing without a key piece on offense.
The undefeated Eagles maintained a double-digit lead every game this season and dominated Washington in Week 3. I think they beat the Commanders easily, although the strength of Washington’s defensive line worries the 11 point line. With three of his double-digit favorites uncovered last week, Washington had a close matchup. He is 5 points ahead of the last 5 games. I’m leaning towards taking points.
Player Prop: Bears QB Justin Fields 59.5+ rushing yards
Are you really going to go down in Fields’ rushing totals, especially against a Lions defense that allows the second-most rushing yards per game? I made it run fast. Fields has rushed for 59.5 or more yards in each of his last four games, including his 178 yards last week. Prop now Fields would be better if he were to bet. Opponents make it more attractive.
(Photo by Justin Herbert: Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)