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Watch live to see if groundhog sees shadow

To shadow, or not to shadow?

That is the question the town of Punxsutawney, Pa. will be asking Thursday morning, as Punxsutawney Phil will make his annual weather prediction.

The famed groundhog will rise from his burrow on Groundhog Day to give us his outlook on what we can expect the weather to be in the U.S. weather in the coming weeks, depending on if he sees his shadow.

The rules are simple:

  • If Phil sees his shadow, he predicts six more weeks of winter.
  • If Phil doesn’t see his shadow, he predicts an early spring.

Here’s what to know about Groundhog Day 2023:

Punxsutawney Phil.

When is Groundhog Day 2023?:Here’s when to expect the furry forecaster to seek his shadow

Can a rodent predict the weather better than a meteorologist can?:Groundhog Day, explained

When is Groundhog Day?

Groundhog Day is every Feb. 2.

When will Punxsutawney Phil make his prediction?

The festivities will begin at Gobbler’s Knob Grounds In Punxsutawney, Pa. at 3 a.m. ET. However, Punxsutawney Phil won’t be making his prediction until just around 7:28 a.m. ET, according to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club’s Inner Circle.

How to watch Punxsutawney Phil make his prediction

You’re in the right spot but you can also watch a Groundhog Day livestream here.

What did Punxsutawney Phil predict last year?

In 2022, Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow and predicted a longer winter. It was the 106th time he saw his shadow in 126 years he has made a prediction.

Is Punxsutawney Phil always right?

Unfortunately, no.

Since making his first prediction in 1887, Punxsutawney Phil has been right only 39% of the timeaccording to the Stormfax Weather Almanac. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Environmental Information found from 2012-21, Phil was only right 40% of the time.

Follow Jordan Mendoza on Twitter: @jordan_mendoza5.

3110fcc2 47e8 4496 a68e 199bb2907388 Groundhog day 2022 01

North Korea says U.S. drills threaten to turn region into ‘critical war zone’

  • North Korea says no interest in talking if U.S. remains hostile
  • Statement warns of response to any military moves by U.S.
  • U.S., S.Korea warplanes conducted drills on Wednesday
  • Allies say exercises needed to deter North Korea

SEOUL, Feb 2 (Reuters) – North Korea’s Foreign Ministry said on Thursday that drills by the United States and its allies have pushed the situation to an “extreme red-line” and threaten to turn the peninsula into a “huge war arsenal and a more critical war zone.”

The statement, carried by state news agency KCNA, said Pyongyang was not interested in dialogue as long as Washington pursues hostile policies.

“The military and political situation on the Korean peninsula and in the region has reached an extreme red-line due to the reckless military confrontational manoeuvres and hostile acts of the U.S. and its vassal forces,” an unnamed ministry spokesperson said in the statement.

In Washington, the White House rejected the North Korean statement and reiterated a willingness to meet with North Korean diplomats “at a time and place convenient for them.”

“We have made clear we have no hostile intent toward the DPRK and seek serious and sustained diplomacy to address the full range of issues of concern to both countries and the region,” said a spokesperson for the White House National Security Council.

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The North Korean statement cited a visit to Seoul this week by U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. On Tuesday Austin and his South Korean counterpart vowed to expand military drills and deploy more “strategic assets,” such as aircraft carriers and long-range bombers, to counter North Korea’s weapons development and prevent a war.

“This is a vivid expression of the U.S. dangerous scenario which will result in turning the Korean peninsula into a huge war arsenal and a more critical war zone,” the North Korean statement said.

North Korea will respond to any military moves by the United States, and has strong counteraction strategies, including “the most overwhelming nuclear force” if necessary, the statement added.

When asked about the tensions with North Korea during a stop in the Philippines on Thursday, Austin said that the U.S. goal is to promote greater security and stability, and that it remains committed to defending South Korea.

[1/2] A handout photo dated February 1, 2023 shows South Korean and U.S. Air Forces conducting a combined air training with South Korean F-35A fighters, US B-1B strategic bombers, and F-22 and F-35B fighters participating in the skies over the West Sea, in South Korea. South Korean Defense Ministry/Handout via REUTERS

“We will continue to work alongside our allies and train and ensure that we maintain credible and ready forces,” he said.

More than 28,500 American troops are based in South Korea as a legacy of the 1950-1953 Korean War, which ended in an armistice rather than a peace treaty.

“We reject the notion that our joint exercises with partners in the region serve as any sort of provocation. These are routine exercises fully consistent with past practice,” the White House statement said.

Last year, North Korea conducted a record number of ballistic missile tests, which are banned by United Nations Security Council resolutions. It was also observed reopening its shuttered nuclear weapons test site, raising expectations of a nuclear test for the first time since 2017.

In New York, South Korea’s foreign minister, Park Jin, met with the United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Wednesday and called for the U.N.’s continued attention to North Korea’s recent provocations and efforts to implement sanctions on the reclusive regime.

Guterres said any resumption of nuclear testing by North Korea would deal a devastating blow to regional and international security, and reaffirmed support to build lasting peace on the Korean peninsula, according to Park’s office.

Park is on a four-day trip to the United States, which will include a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Washington on Friday.

On Wednesday the United States and South Korea carried out a joint air drill with American B-1B heavy bombers and F-22 stealth fighters, as well as F-35 jets from both countries, according to South Korea’s Defense Ministry.

“The combined air drills this time show the U.S.’ will and capabilities to provide strong and credible extended deterrence against North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats,” the Defense Ministry said in a statement.

Reporting by Josh Smith; Additional reporting by Soo-hyang Choi in Seoul, Steve Holland in Washington, and Karen Lema in Manila; Editing by Jonathan Oatis, Bill Berkrot and Gerry Doyle

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

US secures deal on bases to complete arc around China

The US already had limited access to five sites under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) – the new additions and expanded access, according to a statement from Washington, will “allow more rapid support for humanitarian and climate-related disasters in the Philippines, and respond to other shared challenges”, likely a veiled reference to countering China in the region.

Stock futures tick lower as traders await the Federal Reserve’s latest rate hike decision

Traders on the floor of the NYSE

Source: NYSE

Stock futures slipped Tuesday evening as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s Wednesday meeting.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 48 points or 0.14%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq Composite futures were down 0.20% and 0.37%, respectively.

The moves come after stocks jumped to end January on a strong note. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day nearly 369 points higher, rising by 1.09%. The S&P 500 gained 1.46% to cap its best January performance since 2019. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 1.67%, its best January performance in 22 years.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will announce how much it is increasing interest rates in its latest effort to tame high inflation. Markets are expecting a 25 basis point, or 0.25 percentage point, bump from the central bank. On Tuesday, the employment cost index, a measure of wage increases, showed compensation rose 1% in the fourth quarter, less than the 1.1% estimate by Dow Jones.

Still, traders may be getting ahead of themselves in expecting a more dovish tone from the Fed, or looking for signs that a pause in hikes or even a pivot is coming soon.

“Aggressive tightening in 2022 has led to signs of decelerating inflation but from levels that remain unacceptably high,” Ron Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard said in a Tuesday note. “With a 25bps hike already discounted by markets, Powell’s task is to unambiguously signal the Fed’s commitment to tame inflation.”

The Federal Reserve will announce its decision Wednesday afternoon, followed by Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments.

Earnings season continues as well. Peloton and Meta Platforms are scheduled to report quarterly results on Wednesday.

Six of the Colorado River states agreed on water cuts. California did not

Comment

For the second time in six months, states that depend on the Colorado River to sustain their farms and cities appear to have failed to reach an agreement on restricting water usage, setting up the prospect that the federal government will make unilateral cuts later this year.

Six of the seven Colorado River basin states sketched out a joint proposal for how they could meet the federal government’s demand to make unprecedented cuts to water usage as more than two decades of drought in the West have pushed crucial reservoirs to dangerously low levels.

But the largest water user, California, did not join them — an impasse that suggests the wrangling over how to conserve the dwindling water supply that serves 40 million people will continue in coming months. The Interior Department had asked states to contribute by Tuesday plans for how to voluntarily reduce water usage by 2 to 4 million acre feet — or up to one-third of the river’s annual average flow.

“Obviously, it’s not going swimmingly,” said Jeffrey Kightlinger, the former general manager of the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, a water provider that is a major player in the talks. “It’s pretty tough right now.”

The proposal by the six states — Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming — seeks to protect the major reservoirs in Lake Powell and Lake Mead from falling below critical levels, such as when the dams would no longer be able to generate electricity or at “dead pool,” when water would effectively be blocked from flowing out of these lakes. Before above-average snows in recent weeks, the Bureau of Reclamation was projecting that Lake Powell could start to reach such thresholds by this summer.

Officials fear ‘complete doomsday scenario’ for drought-stricken Colorado River

During the past two decades of drought, and particularly in recent years, the river’s flow has declined but states continue to consume more than the river provides, based on a framework established a century ago.

The proposal lays out potential new cuts for the states of the Southwest that lie downstream from the major reservoirs — Arizona, Nevada, and California — as well as the country of Mexico, which has treaty rights to a portion of the river’s water. The proposal would result in about 2 million acre feet of cuts — the low end of what the federal government has asked for — and would be largest for the biggest consumers of water: California and Arizona. As reservoir levels drop, the document suggests California, which has rights to 4.4 million acre feet of water, would need to cut more than 1 million acre feet.

California has offered to reduce just 400,000 acre feet. An acre foot is 326,000 gallons, or enough to cover an acre in water one foot deep. JB Hamby, chair of the Colorado River Board of California, told the Associated Press in a statement that the state “remains focused on practical solutions that can be implemented now to protect volumes of water in storage without driving conflict and litigation” and will submit its own plan.

The six other states made their case in a letter to the Bureau of Reclamation Monday.

In October 2022, Lake Powell was a quarter full due to a historic drought, which threatened power supplied to millions by the Glen Canyon Dam in Page, Ariz. (Video: John Farrell/The Washington Post)

“We recognize that over the past twenty-plus years there is simply far less water flowing into the Colorado River system than the amount that leaves it, and that we have effectively run out of storage to deplete,” the states wrote. The state representatives added that they would continue to work together and with the federal government and others “to reach consensus on how best to share the burden of protecting the system from which we all derive so many benefits.”

“This modeling proposal is a key step in the ongoing dialogue among the Seven Basin States as we continue to seek a collaborative solution to stabilize the Colorado River system,” Tom Buschatzke, director of the Arizona Department of Water Resources, said in a statement.

Reclamation is in the process of an environmental review of how to operate Glen Canyon and Hoover dams at low-water scenarios. By the summer, the process is expected to clarify the federal government’s legal authority to make unilateral cuts to states’ water allotments.

One of the central tensions of these complicated negotiations is how to balance cuts between farming regions against those in cities, including major population centers. Agriculture uses some 80 percent of the river’s water and also tends to have the most senior rights, some dating back to the 19th century. The way this “priority system” works, residents of Phoenix would lose water before vegetable farmers in Yuma. Those who grow alfalfa in Southern California’s Imperial and Coachella valleys would keep their water before people in parts of Los Angeles.

Arizona city cuts off a neighborhood’s water supply amid drought

Kightlinger, along with many other water experts and officials, say cuts of this magnitude and severity have to be shared, rather than doled out according to seniority.

“They can’t follow the priority system. That would be a disaster. That would be: We’re basically going to put all the cuts on the major share of the economy. That just simply can’t be reality,” he said.

But officials in these farming districts with long-standing water rights do not intend to give them up without a fight — or without compensation that meets their needs.

Alex Cardenas, the president of the board of directors of the Imperial Irrigation District, noted that the water rights among the farmers in his area of California near the border with Mexico predate the formation of the Bureau of Reclamation, which manages the river system. His water district uses about 2.6 million acre feet of water per year to irrigate more than 400,000 acres of farmland for alfalfa, grasses, and other crops.

“We stand behind the priority system on the river, and we also understand that there’s painful cuts that people need to make. But we will not serve as an emergency reservoir for uncontrollable, unsustainable urban sprawl,” Cardenas said. “We’re not going to wreck our local economy so that they can continue to grow their urban economy.”

As negotiations have progressed in recent months, the Imperial Irrigation District has offered to cut its usage by 250,000 acre feet — or about 10 percent. The Biden administration helped pave the way for that offer by pledging $250 million for environmental projects to address the dust-ravaged shorelines around the Salton Sea, California’s largest lake, that’s fed by agricultural runoff from the Imperial Valley.

Cardenas said that the prospect of a 10 percent cut to the region’s $5 billion agricultural economy would mean serious economic pain for a community that already suffers from high unemployment. But from the perspective of other states — even those cuts wouldn’t be nearly enough.

Negotiators have had a bit of help from nature to start the year. The rain and snowstorms that battered California in January have raised reservoir levels in the state and coated the Sierra Nevada mountains in snowpack that is 210 percent above normal for this time of year. The snowpack in the Rocky Mountains, the main source of runoff that feeds the Colorado River system, is also higher than normal but not by as much as in California.

California’s snowpack, aided by atmospheric rivers, could help drought

But the bountiful precipitation has also been a double-edged sword, creating a political challenge for negotiators trying to agree on painful cuts, according to analysts following the talks.

“If severe, extreme drought conditions continued then it’s easier for them to sell additional cuts,” said Michael J. Cohen, a senior researcher with the Pacific Institute and an expert on the Colorado River. “But there’s this public perception that look there’s flooding, why do we need to take additional actions now when there was so much water through all these recent storms.”

The past two years have also seen healthy winter snow accumulation in the Rockies only to have runoff levels into Lake Powell that were a fraction of normal, as terrain dried out by the warming climate absorbs more of the water before it can reach the reservoir. The water level in Lake Powell has fallen about a foot this year and currently stands 33 feet above the threshold where Glen Canyon Dam could not longer produce power.

“There’s a problem of aridification. But on top of that there’s a problem with the rules,” Cohen said. “The rules governing the system are not sustainable.”

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  • Watch live to see if groundhog sees shadow
  • North Korea says U.S. drills threaten to turn region into ‘critical war zone’
  • US secures deal on bases to complete arc around China
  • Stock futures tick lower as traders await the Federal Reserve’s latest rate hike decision
  • Six of the Colorado River states agreed on water cuts. California did not

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